Fuel Frenzy

Energy, especially electricity and Gasoline, we love to use it.

Trouble is we do not like to pay for it! Either with dollars or environmental consequences.

And we act as through we have an unlimited supply.

I stay away from the political end of oil but I need to add
Because of OIL Many UNFriendly Countries hold power over us.

- The True American Energy Policy -
a Quote from Peter Schwartz

Maximize Demand, Minimize Supply
and Buy the rest from the people who hate us the most.

If OPEC turned us OFF
NOT sure we could survive as a country. I know gasoline would skyrocket and it may even be the event that gets World War 3 started.

So lets build a huge tank - From here to almost 95 --- North to Indian River Colony Club and 5280 feet up
That is about 1 Cubic Mile
Fill it up with Crude Oil ---- and that is about what the World uses each year!

1000 barrels / second

The United States uses almost 30% of this!

Many people say High Energy Prices are the fault of Big Oil or Big Government. Do not bet on that.
It is the fault of 7 Billion people, ,,,,,,,
using a finite amount of energy,,,
as if it was available from an infinite source,,,,
at very low prices.

So where do we get our energy?

Electrical Energy

In America                                  In Florida 2007

50 % is Generated by Coal          Natural Gas 52%
20 % Nuclear                                  Nuclear 19%
22 % Natural Gas                          Oil 8%
6.5 % Hydro                                  Coal 6%
Other 4.5 %                                  Purchase 15%

On your way to Orlando on 528
Cooling towers you see are NOT Nuke Plant
2 - Coal plants 460 MW and a 630 MW Natural Gas plant.

The coal plants use 2 million tons of coal a year or 5000 tons a day

Alternate Energy - Green Energy - Renewable Energy

Get a lot of Media attention

They all have 2 common faults

1. Low Available power density

One ounce of uranium equals about 8 tons of wood, 4 tons of coal,
15 barrels of oil or 200,000 sq ft solar for 1 hour

In the world of Alternate energy there is a Kryptonite

It is the AC Power Outlet in your house at 10 cents per KilowattHr

1000 MW Power Plant = 35 Sq Miles of Solar panels !!!

2. COST

5 - 20 cents per KWh for electricity or Gasoline at $2 - $10 per gallon.
Is very difficult to match.

My FP+L bill last month 11.3 cents KWh National average 10 cents

If we could talk.

Hold up AC Outlet Picture

I'll Light your darkness so you can read
I'll cool or warm your home
I'll do your dishes and wash your clothes while you watch TV.
I'll open your garage door at the push of a button.
All for $2 - $10 per day
Sounds like an ideal Wife!

Gas -

Hold up Gas Container picture

It may soon be packaged and sold this way with a nice ribbon on the top.
But for now ----
I'll take you and your friends along with 3000 lbs of automobile, in air conditioned comfort,
20 - 30 miles at 80 miles per hour for $2 - $4 ,
Use 100 gallons of me and I'll take you from Florida to Calif.
Sounds like a deal…….It is!

If I told you I paid $8 a gallon last week --- You would say Price Gouging,,,Outrageous,,,,
That was Orange Juice at Harveys. Gasoline is still a deal!

We like to think that new technology can solve all our problems.
Improved efficiencies in energy generation and use can help,,,
but the laws of physics define the maximum energy available from our renewable resources.
On a per unit basis nothing -Except for Nuclear -- comes close to replacing crude oil.
Technology can increase the amount of wind or solar power we convert but it can never increase
the amount of energy available per square foot from Mother Nature be it Wind, Solar or Water!

Energy Storage -

Efficient energy storage is the core problem of future fuels for transportation.

1 BTU = Amount of energy to heat 1 lb of water 1 degree F - About 1 WOOD Match.

So How can we store 1 Million BTU ???-

This comes from a High School Physics assignment….
Here are a few ways

1 Million Wood Matches

12 Volt Car batteries around 60

Hydrogen - about 3000 cubic feet - high pressure tanks around 20

Natural Gas 1000 Cubic Feet $15

Electricity (not really stored ) 300 KWh

Solar Energy - about 2500 sq feet at noon, on a clear day for 1 hour. I should also add at the equator

Dynamite 200 lbs

Big Macs (Dried) 450

Wood about 160 lbs - Pound for Pound wood more energy than dynamite does not sound correct.
dynamite releases all it's energy in a microsecond. Wood takes a few hours.

Coal 80 lbs

Gasoline 8 gallons - Diesel Oil 7 gallons

Uranium about 0.2 Grams

So you see the problem with gasoline and cars. In over 100 years we have not found a better way
to store large amounts of energy for mobile use than gasoline!

Fossil Fuel -

Oil provides 97% of the fuel used by America's huge fleet of Cars, trucks, trains, planes,
ships and buses. 67% of that is Imported - 14 Million Barrels/day

We ( America ) use - 400 Million Gallons of Gasoline per DAY!

The top countries we import from are:
· Canada - 1.8 million barrels
· Mexico - 1.6 million barrels
· Saudi Arabia - 1.4 million barrels
But do not forget 40% of our imported oil is from OPEC

How much Oil or Coal do we USE and have left?

United States has 30 billion barrels of proven reserves, we use 7 billion Barrels /year
Without imported oil, we would use it up in 4.3 years!

World proven reserves are 1200 billion barrels, we use 30 billion barrels/year. just 43 years!

Counting Future Discoveries 40 - 100 years if we do not increase consumption.
Do you think China or India are listening when we say do not increase consumption?
They are both trading Bicycles for Cars at a very fast pace.
Do you think America is listening???

Coal -

We use just over 1 billion tons per year.

We have somewhere between 80 - 270 years of coal available.

Coal Creek Generating Station in Nebraska a 1,100 megawatt coal-fired plant Consumes 950 tons of coal per hour,
It was built at a coal mine so coal transportation is by conveyor.

Nuclear Power -
About 103 operating plants in US. all Fission Plants splitting Uranium. Current drawbacks (waste / not in my back yard / safety fears )
Having spent most of my adult life in a Nuclear Power Plant I am very biased.
We accept risk in every other phase of life such as Air Travel and Highway Accidents, but refuse to accept any risk
from Nuclear Power, But we want and demand the electricity Nuclear Power generates.
We need to decide if we want some risk and lots of electrical energy,,,,or little risk and small amounts of electrical energy.
----- make our choice and move on.
Despite fears, some think Nuclear Power may need to be a large part of our future energy answer.
The advantage of Nuclear Power is energy density.
It is the only method that can produce energy anywhere near the scale that we need.

Pound for pound, coal stores about twice the energy of wood.
Oil beats coal by a large margin.
But an ounce of uranium fuel equals about 4 tons of coal, or 15 barrels of oil.
That's why small quantities of Uranium,,,,, in relatively small reactors can power a city.

A quick example Nuclear Powered Trident Submarine. This is a large submarine 560 feet long - 24 missiles How often does it need refueling?
20 Years.

Fusion - The power of the SUN! Billions spent on research over last 40+ years with NO results. Fusion makes great bombs but so far no luck at a controlled Fusion process to get useful energy from.

COLD FUSION - Lots of interest in this a few years ago. But is it Fact or Hype? Who knows but maybe we should throw a few $100 Million at it and see if we can prove or disprove it.

Hydro Power -

If you have a source of raised water it produces the lowest cost power.
Just about all usable sites have been identified and put into use.
Three Gorges Dam In China 22,500 Mw - Cement shortage
Niagara falls 2500 MW
Boulder Dam 2000 MW
Lake Mead which feeds Boulder Dam NEEDS RAIN Down 100 feet since 1998 - Some studies think dry by 2021 It was this low in 1968
Niagara falls - Electrical energy must not be as valuable as some may think.
If we made it into The Great Niagara Rock Climb Wall we could double the electrical output.
The US and Canada have an agreement on minimum flow rate over the falls.

Wind -

Windy here in Melbourne? Or on the Fla Coast?
Key West only area on coast that averages >10 mph
In the US there is significant wind power available Texas to Montana.
A typical 1.5 MW wind turbine - Cost $2 Million - 200 foot blades. Cut in speed 7 mph - Rated wind speed 26 mph.
Wind turbines are lucky to average 30% of rated output.
California's 15,000 wind turbines account for about 1% of California's electrical needs.
As of 2007 in the US there are about 17,000 MW of installed wind power.
Key word being Installed - Actual output may only be 30% of these figures. Remember the 26 MPH wind speed needed for rated output???

Solar -

Speak to or read about someone or a family that has gone Off-Grid and 100% Solar.
They either spent $200,000 to get $1200 worth of electricity each year or they are living somewhat like Abe Lincoln.
Yes, electricity can be made via solar power but it is still very expensive.

Solar Thermal

I am disappointed that here in the Sunshine State we are not using Solar Power to heat our hot water.
Very easy technology and not to costly but we are so attached to the cheap and simple installation of electric or gas hot water when building that we continue to ignore the Solar option.

Hydrogen - Another media SuperStar - Hydrogen has an ENORMOUS disadvantage,
there is NO natural supply of Hydrogen, anywhere on Earth. It needs to be made using large amounts of energy.
But Just as when you charge a battery you can never get all the energy out that you put in.
I just saw an article on the many benefits of hydrogen as a fuel. It started off with “ If you have a supply of hydrogen”
If I had a supply of gasoline, driving my car would cost less also!!
There are many problems using Hydrogen but it is one of the few fuels available that is portable enough to maybe play a role in reducing our use of imported oil for transportation.
Would you believe A Gallon of gasoline contains more hydrogen than a Gallon of liquid Hydrogen
Gas about 6 lbs Liquid Hydrogen about 0.5 lbs

Gas Mileage -

The Internal Combustion Engine has been in the 30% efficient range for many years. Electric car proponents are quick to point out that an electric motor is around 85% efficient. True, but the Internal Combustion Engine starts with liquid gas and makes rotary motion.
The electric motor uses electricity which when followed back to the fuel goes thru many steps with efficiency losses at every step.
For Gas Mileage WEIGHT is the largest factor! Want to get a good idea of the gas mileage of any particular auto without relying on some EPA estimates? Just take a look at the gross weight of the vehicle.

Lincoln Navigator    18 mpg     5777 lbs
Honda Civic          36 mpg        2650 lbs
Smart For2           40+ mpg       1808 lbs
Someone always points out ----My 1970 Datsun B210 truck was almost 40mpg
1970 small truck - 1500 lbs - less steel, no environmental systems, no safety systems but 40+ mpg
Today's small truck -------Ford ranger 26 mpg but it weighs 3000 lbs

Electric vehicles - Biggest faults are ----no one thinks about where the energy comes from and we have nothing portable that comes close to the energy storage abilities of petroleum fuel.

The GOOD News - Since most electricity in America is generated by COAL, Natural Gas or Nuclear -- lets get as many Plug-In electric cars on the road as possible. Using electricity generated many miles away to power electric cars may not be efficient or even green but it can reduce our use of imported oil.

Here in Melbourne, Florida we have maybe 1000 Golf Carts between Suntree, Baytree and Viera.

Lets get a cart path / Road network in place to connect from maybe Pineda to The Viera Government Center and up to almost Rockledge.

I know we need to be careful of the mix of cars and carts but I bet we could have a plan in place for not much money. Remember any bridge built to cross Wickham only needs to be a light duty bridge to carry small vehicles. Not a multi Million dollar bridge as used on 95.

I can already see the red flags of the I Can't mentality going up. We need to change to an I CAN mentality to successfully make changes now to methods that will need to be made available when Gasoline is $25 per Gallon.

Neighborhood electric vehicles and Golf Carts could supply a large portion of the daily transportation of many people in these areas. Saving use of imported fuel and providing an example to America of what can be done to save imported oil.

Today Hybrids are the green machine to have.

Some are just a marketing ploy or a method to meet fleet requirements for some government incentive program.
But others truly are an energy saving choice.

Prius - Well thought out combination of efficient engine, battery, computers, electric motors and more. It is a high mileage automobile but remember every watt of energy used is from the gasoline in the tank.

Why no plug in Prius or any other mass produced electric auto yet?
Deep charge and discharge of the newer battery technologies is a challenge to accomplish and still ensure long battery life. Manufactures are reluctant to gamble on battery warranty of plug in electric vehicles.

With all the high tech advantages the Prius has, why does it not get even better results?

The computers #1 directive is PROTECT THE BATTERY

Toyota tries to keep the Prius battery in the 40 - 60% full charge range at all times. This leaves room for regen braking to charge the battery and gives the battery the best chance of lasting to warranty end.
These self imposed battery restrictions limit the electric-only driving range to around 1 - 3 miles.

Yes there are ways to use more of the Prius battery and get outstanding mileage. Many aftermarket modifications are available including plug in, but you are playing with the useful life and voiding the warranty of a $5000 battery. - Toyota battery warranty is 8 Years - 100,000 miles

Just a quick note - Next year the Prius will have a solar roof option. Many will see this as powering the car for free. Far from it.
Media articles may mislead you to believe that it runs the air conditioner. Not quite!

It powers a small ventilation fan which keeps the car cooler when the car is sitting in the sun. This helps the cars air condition by not having to cool down a 160 degree interior when first starting out.
These solar panels are not even connected to the main drive battery. If they were connected to the main battery and charged all day in the sun additional range would be very little.

Is there hope? Yes there is,,,,,,, but you can see given the cost and energy densities involved with wind and solar it will be difficult and expensive. President Obama says energy independence in 10 years - No way!

Every President since Richard Nixon has promised to make America energy independent, in 1974 the percentage of imported oil we used was 20 percent. Today we import almost 70 percent.

Without a true energy breakthrough ( Something NO One in this room has ever heard of) in the next few hundred years we may be headed for an energy level of use,,,,, last seen in Medieval times.

You may have heard of T Boone Pickens - He has a plan and it may just be what we need to get through the next few hundred years while we search for other energy options.

Mr Pickens has said “If we don't reverse this trend (Imported Oil) over the next ten years, we will be importing 75 percent of our oil and paying between $200 and $300 per barrel.”

He went on to say that at $300 per barrel “you won't have to worry about healthcare or education. They will be solved. How????? We won't have any money left to deal with either one.”

I have pointed out the problems of cost and low energy densities using Solar and Wind power, making them a poor solution to our energy dilemma, but they may be our only options.

His Plan - Build wind turbines in the Texas to Montana wind corridor and solar panels in the Texas to Calif. Sun belt. With a huge investment it is possible to generate maybe 20% of our electric power with these renewable energy sources within the next 10 or 20 years. This would take a scale of commitment many times larger than the Manhattan Project.

How big is this project? Try 16,000 large wind turbines per year for the next 30 years and a similar commitment in Solar Power.

Also by Converting most of our large diesel trucks to Natural Gas. We could save 30% of our imported oil.

These are a great start, but We will need every watt of energy that we can produce domestically, whether it is new sources of oil,,,, additional natural gas,,,, coal, nuclear or renewable fuels to replace imported oil and stop shipping Billions dollars overseas. Is this costly You Bet,,,,,, but right now we send $400 Billion out of the country every year.

Crude oil truly is a "miracle fuel" and the alternative energy advocates who wish to replace it with sun, wind or water continue to ignore the size of the problem they are facing.

I started out today saying the world uses a cubic mile of oil each year.
So now lets see how to replace a cubic mile of oil.

Allowing fifty years to develop each replacement, one cubic mile of oil could be replaced by any one of these developments:

· 40 Niagara Falls developed each year for 50 years, or
· 52 Nuclear Power Plants, developed each year for 50 years, or
· 104 Coal Fired Plants developed each year for 50 years, or
· 35,000 Large Wind Turbines developed each year for 50 years, or
· 92,000,000 rooftop Solar Installations developed each year for 50 years That is 250,000 installations per DAY!

Oil provides about one third of total world energy use. Coal, close to another third. Nuclear about 7%. Wind and Solar combined <0.5%

We spill more oil equivalent power than solar generates! So you see ----

$2, $10 or $20 per gallon gas makes little difference. The truth is we (and we is the world population of people ) are running out of fuels to power our energy dependant society!
The world will be out of oil in 50 - 150 years.

You might say build Nukes. We need to bring one online each week for the next 50 years to equal our oil consumption. We better start now!

Use Solar ,Wind or Tidal - with present technology and low energy densities these are very small sources of energy and will involve tremendous cost. Hydrogen, Ethanol and Hybrid/Electric Cars - Their use may be a net loss of energy but if they save 1 barrel of imported oil we need to develop and use them.

It will take some time and a lot of money but standing still and continuing down the imported oil path is not a realistic option.